ABSTRACT
Collision risk estimation in airspace has been studied for many years using different approaches based on different assumptions. The results of this paper supports the fact that the risk is not the same for all the proximate events on which aircraft pass closer than the prescribed horizontal and vertical separation minima. The proposed approach aims at providing an individual probability of potential collision (severity) of each individual encounter, based on the kinematics of the encounter and the minimum lateral and vertical separation at the predicted CPA. The formulation presented allows not only the estimation of the severity for each individual potential aircraft encounter but also the expected probability of collision for all aircraft pairs potentially violating the separation standards, in a given en route airspace scenario and for an aircraft population. In order to evaluate the human factors implications of the research findings, results are applied to stored aircraft tracks that have flown within MUAC Airspace.
