ABSTRACT
There has been a prolonged debate about the impact of turnout on the electoral outcome. The debate gets a fresh lease of life at the time of every election. The debate has gained greater momentum in recent times as most of the state assembly elections and the last two Lok Sabha elections (2014 and 2019) witnessed a significant increase in voters’ turnout. The 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections witnessed a significant increase in turnout at constituency levels. A shared belief – higher turnout – is a sign of strong anti-incumbency, people having turned out to vote in bigger numbers to defeat the ruling party. A lower turnout has attached to it just the opposite meaning, a sign of pro-incumbency – voters being generally happy with the government and, a lower level of enthusiasm amongst the people to vote the government out of power, they want to maintain status quo. In simple words, lower turnout is seen as a sign of continuity of the existing government. Analysis of constituency-wise data of turnout for all the Lok Sabha elections suggests there is hardly any relation between turnout and electoral outcome. Similarly, the analysis of data of turnout of various assembly elections in different states over the last seven decades suggest there is hardly any correlation; turnout has declined and the government has been voted out and vice versa. The evidences suggest there is hardly any correlation between turnout and electoral outcome. All these evidences have been put in one place for easy reference and informed debate.
