ABSTRACT
This chapter explores the current state of research knowledge about climate change and its consequences in pastoral areas of East Africa. It reviews traditional and current pastoral climate risk management strategies in a changing economic and political context. The chapter presents downscaled climate projections to 2050, describing several different types of impact thresholds. It provides evidence on how climate change might affect pastoral systems through changes in vegetation, frequency of drought and livelihood transitions in marginal cropping areas. A major difficulty in interpreting and using climate change model results is the uncertainty in the calculations and predictions. Changes in herd dynamics can also be expected from climate change. Rainfall in pastoral areas is a primary driver of vegetation in variable arid and semi-arid climates, and hence vegetation growth closely follows rainfall amount, frequency and duration. In sum, climate risk is a core driver of livestock population dynamics.
