Elements of probability theory
Unfortunately, the phenomena which constitute a building fire and the concomitant fire fighting exhibit much uncontrollable variability. The sources of this variability are, among others:
1. The inherent variability of fire and smoke spread. 2. Lack of knowledge regarding the type, quantity and geometry of the fuel. 3. Lack of knowledge regarding whether doors and windows are closed or open. 4. Lack of knowledge regarding the occupants of the building and their likely
reaction to the fire. 5. Lack of knowledge regarding the actions of the fire brigade.