ABSTRACT
Tourism forecasting requires a particular philosophy. It is often said that ‘forecasting in tourism is an art’.This should not be interpreted as an aversion to forecasting methods – on the contrary. However, according to Archer (1975), sound forecasting requires a sensible amalgam of rigorous scientific analysis and sound practical experience. A ‘good feeling’ can be helpful. Accurate information should be the starting point (see Chapter 2), and we can learn a lot from the past – although it is a mistake to depend too much on trends. It is also wise to start from several scenarios. Consulting people from the tourism industry is a valuable complement to any forecasting method. Finally, it is recommended that forecasts be revised from time to time.
