ABSTRACT
Results of climate change research (Houghton et al., 1996) show that man has intensified the greenhouse effect by increasing the concentration of carbon dioxide in the earth’s atmosphere. According to the prediction of climate models, this development is accompanied by a rise in global average temperature. This has a number of further consequences, which are the subject of climate change impact research. Possible effects are, for example, the rise of sea level or changes in vegetation. As far as the magnitude of these effects or regional effects is concerned, no reliable data are yet available. In addition to physical, geological and ecological changes, it is also necessary to consider sociological and psychological aspects, such as who perceives climate change, how individuals and/or societies perceive climate change, and how they respond to their perceptions of changes (for example, adaptive behaviour, avoidance strategies), in order to assess societal effects of climate change (cf. Stehr and von Storch, 1995). In order to gain some insights into how this complex system may influence tourism, we need a model of how tourism works to see where climate change impacts can affect tourism.
