chapter  13
28 Pages

Tourism in the twenty-first century: contemporary tourism in an uncertain world

The future, by definition, is unknown. Trying to predict what the future will bring has become an important element in tourism management because of the need to try and bring a degree of control and certain to business management processes as well as providing desired returns for destinations. Yet such processes are extremely difficult because of the possibilities of ‘wildcard’ – high impact, low probability – events occurring that affects the consumption and production of tourism. Since 2000, there has been a large number of wildcard events that have affected tourism patterns and flows at a global scale. These include:

mouth disease in the UK or avian flu outbreaks. ● Economic events such as a rapid increase in the price of fuel. ● Political events such as changes in boarding and passport requirements for trav-

ellers as a result of increased concerns over security. This also includes sudden changes in terms of what you can take onto aircraft as hand luggage.