ABSTRACT
Owing to the many explanatory factors, forecasting in tourism is different from
forecasting in most other sectors. The aim cannot be to provide very precise
predictions for example, an increase of arrivals of, say, 5.3 per cent. Those who believe in precise estimations start with the wrong attitude. In tourism, forecasting
means indicating the future direction of demand or, in other words, getting an idea of the magnitude of the expected evolution. Knowledge of the extent of future
demand should provide sufficient information for a destination management policy,
allowing a limit to the range of uncertainty and thus a reduction in investment
risks.
