ABSTRACT

The regional flood risk analysis covered the mountainous area of the city and the precipitation analysis included a larger area including both the mountains and the urban plateau. One of the challenges in mountainous areas is the identification of priorities for flood risk management measures. Areas susceptible to floods and debris flows were identified using simplified flood plain delineation methods and the Modified Single Flow Direction model. The simplified flood plain delineation methods that were tested correspond to the multi-resolution valley bottom flatness algorithm and threshold buffers. In order to combine the vulnerability and susceptibility to derive a level of risk, a classification matrix was used. Numerical weather prediction models are crucial to increase lead times in flood forecasting. However, they require a post processing process to correct biases and to produce probabilistic inputs for the hydrological models.