ABSTRACT
The previous chapter has examined how population change can affect development; this chapter now explores the other side of the reflexive relationship between population and development – how and why populations change in response to patterns and processes of development. In which respects and to what extent has ‘development’ historically been a principal driver of population change, and to what extent is contemporary population change being driven by economic and social trends and processes? These interrelated questions are addressed in three distinct sections. The first part of the chapter considers the historical experience of natural population change as
summarised in theories of population change that are collectively known as demographic transition theory (DTT), and summarised by the demographic transition model (DTM). These ideas seek to provide a basic understanding of the logic and processes of long-term population change. Implicit in this theory is the assumption that there is a universal global model of population change, and that it is driven by development. The second section of the chapter introduces migration into the general model to explore the mobility transition within a global context. The final section considers the contemporary experience of national change in Developing Countries and how some of the range of assumptions and conclusions of DTT and the DTM have influenced both development policies and population policies.
