The Future of International Politics [1957]

THE UNEASY EQUILIBRIUM which at present governs the relations of East and West has for the moment diminished the fear of world war. It seems to be admitted by both sides that neither could derive any advantage from a nuclear conflict. This has put an end to the time-honoured methods of diplomacy without as yet supplying any substitute. All diplomacy hitherto has been conducted by the open or tacit threat of war. When each side felt confident of victory, actual war resulted. There have also been wars in which one side, though it knew itself to be weaker than the other, preferred heroic defiance to surrender. In our nuclear age, heroic defiance has become an absurdity. The West could 10 produce a world containing no Communists, and the East could produce a world containing no Capitalists, but, as it would be a world containing nobody at all, defiance, however heroic, could not achieve any useful end. Diplomats, consequently, are deprived of their traditional weapon. They are in fact reduced to a game of bluff and blackmail. If it is thought that the other side would rather exterminate the human race than yield, it is rational to give way to the lunacy of opponents. There is thus a premium on madness, and one-sided rationality entails defeat for the less insane.