ABSTRACT
In this paper, we apply the Hodrick-Prescott and Beveridge-Nelson business-cycle decomposition methods to a time-series of homicides in Colombia (1946-99). Separating out ‘permanent’ from ‘cyclical’ murder, we hypothesize that the cyclical part coincides with the periodic political unrest in the country. The results show a good match between the political events in the country and the computed cyclical murder component.
