ABSTRACT
The progress of mining operations to deeper zones have caused some failures and stability problems in different parts of Gol-E-Gohar iron open pit mine, therefore stability analysis has become more important in this mine. Several uncertainties exist in the estimation of the stability condition of a slope. These uncertainties may depend on the strength and geometric parameters estimation and selecting of model used. The first uncertainty is due to the spatial variability of the material properties and the uncertainty in their measurements. The second is due to the reliability level of the hypothesis carried out to model rock mass mechanical behavior. To account for such levels of uncertainty, the probabilistic methods should be considered for assessing the performance of the slope. Final result of this method is the probability of failure, or alternatively, the probability of unsatisfactory performance. Probabilistic methods have been applied on GEG slope stability analysis are Taylor series method, Point estimate method, and Monte Carlo simulation. Totally all methods provided very similar results, and were in good agreement with actual observation in the mine.
