China's military threat to Taiwan in the twenty-first century: Coercion or capture?

The most serious military threat Taiwan faces is that from the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Any analysis of Taiwanese defense reform should proceed from an evaluation of the threat posed to the island by the armed forces of the PRC. 7KLVFKDSWHURIIHUVDWHQWDWLYHDVVHVVPHQWRIWKHQDWXUHRIWKLVWKUHDW²LGHQWLÀHG as coercion or capture – and draws some basic implications from this assessment. One aspect of the military threat from China will be excluded from consideration: the use or threatened use of weapons of mass destruction.2