ABSTRACT

It should be mentioned at the outset that the extreme paucity of reliable statistical information frequently forces assumptions which might not be acceptable in most other circumstances. The reader is therefore cautioned that the story which follows frequently relies on statistics which are 'guestimates'. A second problem arises, however, from our methodology. It would be immediately apparent that the national economy is in a fluid state. Yet in our analysis we are implicitly stating it as being in equilibrium in the years 1974/75 and 1979/80, which form the end-years of the period under study. Further, a quick check would reveal that even this short period is marked by two subperiods, the first of decline, up to 1977/78, and the second of subsequent recovery. However, adopting such short periods would make a self-contained analysis of each even more hazardous.