ABSTRACT
Recent trends in international terrorism present a mixed picture of change and continuity. The most salient features of these trends were the proliferation of terrorist groups and the numerous fatalities that terrorists inflicted.1 Today, approximately 70 terrorist groups are active throughout the world. Only 11 identifiable terrorist groups were active in 1968, representing a nearly sevenfold increase in the number of terrorist organizations over the past two decades. Although the total volume of terrorist activity increased by only a third in the 1980s compared to the previous decade, terrorists killed twice as many persons.2 This increase in lethality is reflected in the 76 per cent increase in the number of individual terrorist incidents resulting in fatalities, the 115 per cent rise in the number of incidents that caused five or more fatalities, and especially in the 135 per cent increase in the number of incidents that caused ten or more fatalities. 3 Yet, while terrorists were undeniably more active and considerably more lethal, the targets they chose, the weapons they used, and the tactics they employed remained remarkably consistent. Though superficially contradictory, this dichotomy nonetheless provides important clues toward identifying likely future patterns of terrorist targeting, tactics, and trends.
