ABSTRACT
This article looks at the future of terrorism and counter-terrorism by examining the past. It does this in two ways. First, I compare two incidents that happened 22 years apart: one in 1999 and one in 1977. The capture in Nairobi, Kenya, of Abdullah Ocalan, leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) by Turkish intelligence agents in February 1999 highlights some of the most salient features of the current environment in which terrorism and counter-terrorism unfold today, especially when we compare it with a similar incident that occurred some two decades previously involving the Palestinian terrorist, Abu Daoud. Second, I examine two discourses that happened some 18 years apart: one in 1980 (and the late seventies) and one in 1999 (and the late nineties). The current discourse over whether terrorists will use weapons of mass destruction (WMD terrorism) is compared with an article that was published in 1980 concerning the same topic. The 1999 discourse, like the 1999 incident, reveals other features of the environment in which terrorism and counter-terrorism interact today, especially when compared with the 1980 discourse. It is these features - as revealed in the comparative incidents and the comparative discourses - that may provide important clues to future developments in terrorism and its control over the coming decade, particularly as they may affect Europe and the Middle East as opposed to the United States. In addition, they may also explain why current (primarily American) discourse on the future of terrorism may be both
misleading as far as Europe is concerned and, more importantly, dangerous in terms of misrepresenting future threats and blinding everyone to more likely scenarios. It is both at the level of phenomena (incidents) and at the level of discourse (analysis, prediction, threat assessment) that future developments in terrorism and counterterrorism will be played out and the interaction between the two levels is a crucial part of understanding them.
