ABSTRACT
Prior to the financial crisis that swept through a number of Asian nations in 1997, the ASEAN countries were emerging as the star performers in Australia's strategy of diversifying its Asian tourism source markets away from Japan. In the period from 1985 to 1997, the share of total inbound tourism to Australia from the nations comprising the original ASEAN block (Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei) increased from 8 percent to 15 percent. Conversely, outbound tourism to the ASEAN countries from Australia declined in overall percentage terms from 4.4 percent in 1989 to 3.7 percent in 1995 (although the actual number of tourist visits increased slightly). The Tourism Forecasting Council (TFC), established by the Australian Federal Government in 1995 to provide an independent and specialized source of tourism forecasting, predicted that the share of Australia's inbound market sourced from the larger ASEAN countries of Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore, and Malaysia would increase from 14 percent of total inbound visitors (601,000) in 1996 to 19 percent (1,474,000) by 2004 (Tourism Forecasting Council, 1997a). Projections were built on the premise of a continuation of the high rates of growth achieved over the previous ten years. Apart from the impact
of the controversy caused by the 1996-1997 so-called "race debate" in Australia inspired by the anti-Asian comments of independent member of Federal Parliament Pauline Hanson, the TFC forecasts appeared to be on target during the first six months of 1997. The TFC projections also appeared to be in line with the general expectations of researchers (Qu and Zhang, 1997; World Tourism Organization [WTO], 1994; World Travel and Tourism Council, 1996) that the long-term pattern of tourism growth, based on continuing economic growth, would continue into the foreseeable future. The Asian financial crisis that commenced in mid-1997 set in motion a series of events that has disrupted the tourism industry in many ASEAN countries. Taken together with the forest fire-generated smoke haze that affected Indonesia, Singapore, and Malaysia in late 1997, as well as concerns about weaknesses in the Chinese economy, the continuing poor performance of the Japanese economy, and political unrest in Indonesia, the Asian financial crisis is likely to continue to have a significant impact on tourism flows between Australia and the ASEAN countries, as well as among the ASEAN nations themselves, at least in the short term.
