ABSTRACT
Over the past decade crowded prison conditions became the subject for lawsuits across the country, resulting in restrictions on the “capacity” of prison systems in a number of states. These restrictions produced pressures throughout the criminal justice system, from arrest to release on parole. The question addressed in this research is whether these restrictions and pressures affected the probability and pattern of return to prison among parolees. Data were collected at yearly intervals from four successive cohorts of parolees in Texas. Each cohort was followed for thirty-six months to determine the pattern and probability of returning to prison. Four alternative explanations for shifts in recidivism probabilities are explored using “survival analysis” techniques. Evidence is found for reduced deterrence m addition to effects from cohort composition and administrative discretion.
