ABSTRACT
Nature of the threat has changed dramatically, from nation-states to non-state actors as the primary target. Cold War intelligence gave pride of place to secrets information gathered by human and technical means that intelligence owned. A Bayesian approach addresses some aspects of terrorism warning. The Jominian approach pervades how analysis is conducted and taught. Most assessments, like US National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs), provide a best estimate or key judgements. A Clausewitzian approach would rest, instead, on three principles: confidence and probability are different; content of information matters as much as reliability; and consequence matters in evaluating information and in constructing alternatives. Information technology is enabling new forms of collaboration within intelligence but also outside it: witness wikis and crowd sourcing. Social networking media are both a cause and a metaphor for the transparency that is rolling across both intelligence and policy science. A study of social media for the US National Geospatial Intelligence Agency (NGA) found: enthusiasm mixed with concern.
