Modeling the impact of climate variability on local food prices
This chapter presents research that seeks to explain the different impacts on local food prices of environmental seasonality, climate variability and variations in international prices. Demonstrating the impact of these three elements on local food prices with a model will help us put individual markets for different commodities into a typology, where variability from the international price and remotely sensed information are quantified. Some markets have prices that are not predictable using either international prices or environmental observations. This chapter will present the economic framework, model approach and results that allow for categorization of markets and countries into those affected by international prices, local weather shocks and both. The chapter ends with a brief discussion of the potential usefulness of an operational model that integrates weather and price shocks on local food access.