ABSTRACT
Among the manifestations of China’s renewed emphasis on military preparations against Taiwan, the role of its short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) force is arguably the most consequential. Notwithstanding the enhancement of a wide array of Chinese military capabilities over the past decade, the SRBM force constitutes a fundamentally new capability, affording Beijing political and military options that it until now did not possess. As characterized in the Pentagon’s 2003 assessment of Chinese military power, “preparing for a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait is the primary driver for China’s military modernization…. Currently, China’s conventional SRBM force is its most credible and immediate threat to Taiwan.”2 China’s SRBM buildup has also stimulated a wide-ranging debate in Taiwan on its political and defense options, including the “defensive referendum” of 20 March 2004. The increased importance of the SRBM factor in the cross-Strait military balance also confronts the United States with major dilemmas in its policies toward Beijing and Taipei.
