ABSTRACT
Introduction The rise of China and its impact on the twenty-first century continues to be a hot topic of debate. Will China’s re-emergence as a regional and global power promote greater peace and stability in the world, or will it spark increased international conflict and instability? The answers to these questions will depend not only on how much power China can wield, but on how China’s leaders choose to do so; as important will be how the United States and other governments respond. This essay contemplates China’s rise by taking a long-term and provocative view of China’s efforts to modernize its economy and military. It examines China’s changing civil-military relations through the prism of shifting technology development strategies and the impact of globalization on China’s development efforts as well as on its arms and export control policies. It finds that two recent developments in China’s changing civil-military relations suggest that Beijing is not only likely to be more internationally engaged and influential in the coming decades, but that Beijing is also likely to employ conventional arms sales and defense technology exports as a key means of enhancing influence on regional and international affairs. This objective, moreover, may be realized sooner than conventional wisdom concerning China’s military modernization efforts suggest. But will this be a cause for alarm or might China’s growing power and influence be tempered by Beijing’s renewed commitment to preventing proliferation? The chapter addresses this concern, highlights a number of possible strategic and policy implications, and suggests the need for new ways of thinking about Chinese foreign policy in the twenty-first century.
