ABSTRACT
At the time of writing, the Good Friday Agreement institutions remain in a state of suspension following the October 2002 Sinn Fein ‘spying scandal’ at Stormont. Ever since, the British and Irish administrations have endeavoured to restore devolved government in the province but, with little trust, the continuing existence and alleged activity of the IRA, and unionist frustration, the task has not been an easy one, particularly after the success of the anti-agreement Democratic Unionist Party in eclipsing the pro-agreement Ulster Unionist Party in the November 2003 Assembly election (following the breakdown in negotiations). Talks aimed at restoring devolution broke down once more in November 2004. On 28 July 2005 the IRA issued a statement announcing the end of its armed campaign, that IRA units had been ordered to dump arms, that it was to pursue the struggle through purely democratic and peaceful means and that ‘volunteers must not engage in any other activities whatsoever’. This has raised hopes that devolution may once again be restored but, with little trust from unionists, the institutions have yet to be resurrected. It is in the context of the ‘political vacuum’ that has developed since October 2002 that one needs to fully assess the security threat from terrorist groups in Northern Ireland.
