ABSTRACT
There is a kind of unintentional continuity between the previous chapter and the present chapter, giving an impression of a time series analysis. The fact is, the perceived continuity emanates from the political developments and behavioural traits that were set in motion in the colonial era inevitably spilling over into the period under examination. As such, there is a somewhat deceptive lack of discontinuity. The difference here however lies in its critical analytical approach. While a great deal of information here is available elsewhere, I take care to interpret it here in the context of the relevant themes; ethnic identity, its mobilisation and democratic transition. In this chapter, I will seek to examine the first postindependence regime within which I intend to apply the integrative model as a tool of analysis. More specifically, I will gauge the implication of political ethnicity on the potential for transition. The modus operandi will be to examine the nature and structure of the regime and its policies and to what extent and in what ways they interface with the integrative model. As such, I shall illustrate that, while there were some attempts to introduce a semblance of ‘democratic transition’, these were superficial and ultimately based on problematic framing of the challenges and opportunities at hand. As such, the subsequent failure of the process to take root could as well have been relatively predictable (Conversi 2006: 254; Chua 2003; Stradiotto and Guo 2010: 6). Most Rwanda country analysts and transitionists will agree that the formative transition process from the Tutsi-dominated monarchy to the Hutu-led Republic (between 1959 and 1961) constitutes a critical juncture for the understanding of the subsequent political quagmire and, consequently, the transition difficulties Rwanda has since experienced (Reyntjens 2000; Office of the President 1999a: 51; Lema 1993; Newbury 1988: 180). To transitionists, this is a kind of path dependency; the outcome will have been dictated by the process and events that preceded them (Di Palma 1990; Huntington 1991; Karl and Schmitter 1991).
