ABSTRACT
The first formal model-based evaluation of the impact of the CSF was carried out using the Irish version of the multi-sectoral HERMES model that had been developed during the mid-to-late 1980s as part of a trans-EU exercise financed by DG XII (Bradley, Fitz Gerald and Kearney, 1992). Since the time scale of the evaluation was compressed into just over one year, very little could be done to modify the model mechanisms in a way that would reflect how CSF policies would influence private sector behaviour, particularly since little was known about these mechanisms. A simple approach (in modellers’ terms) had to be adopted, and the main components of the HERMES-based analysis are illustrated in Figure 9.4 below.
