ABSTRACT
In Central Asia expectations of democratization have remained largely unfulfilled. The only year in which all five countries – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan 1 – were rated as ‘partly free’ by Freedom House was in 1991–2. Over the subsequent years, all countries except Kyrgyzstan reverted rather quickly to a ‘not free’ status (Figure 6.1 below shows the combined Freedom House index of political rights and civil liberties between 1986 and 2009). In Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, presidents have held power since before the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. In Turkmenistan, autocrat Saparmurat Niyazov held power from 1985 until his death in 2006, when he was replaced by one of his own protégés. In Tajikistan, President Emomali Rahmon, a collective farm boss during the Soviet era, has been head of state since 1992. Only in Kyrgyzstan is autocratic control less secure with President Askar Akayev and his successor Kurmanbek Bakiyev both overthrown in popular uprisings led by rival elites in 2005 and 2010 respectively. Of the five Central Asian states, four can be described as ‘consolidated authoritarian’, while the fifth (Kyrgyzstan) can best be described as a ‘non-consolidated, non-democratic’ regime. In all five Central Asian states, power has never changed hands by means of the ballot box. 2 Among all post-communist transition countries and subregions (such as the Balkans or the South Caucasus), Central Asian countries form the most solid block of authoritarian countries and currently Central Asia is one of the most authoritarian ‘subregions’ in the world. Freedom House scores, 1986–2009
Note: Freedom House scores for civil liberties and for political rights range from 1 to 7. Adding these yields a range of possible ratings from 2 (fully democratic political rights and civil liberties) to 14 (fully autocratic regime with no civil liberties).
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