ABSTRACT
’The Future belongs to those who can work in an unpredictable environment’ and ‘Good managers don’t make policy decisions’ are two quotations that could be read in international management journals a few years ago. They reveal a mistrust of forecasting and concern for the difficulties that may arise if a decision taken now is based on guesswork about what will happen in the future. At the same time, managers have overwhelming desire to find tools for strategic planning. Some of the tools that have been developed are based on sophisticated computer models and information technology. Others are simpler models aimed at strategic thinking and designed as guidance for strategic planning. The simplest tools are found in business journals and other public sources disseminating information, which is interpreted to form the basis for a strategic decision. What all the tools have in common is speculation about the future: how the market will develop, how competition will act and how government rules will change.
