ABSTRACT
A government regulation on one dimension of a problem frequently induces avoidance responses involving other dimensions: an apt metaphor is that of squeezing a balloon, where any air pushed out of one area moves to another region, without any fundamental change in the balloon. Such “balloon effects” are pervasive, though often hard to predict in advance.1 Requirements that safety caps be placed on aspirin bottles led to no change in the trend of aspirin poisonings – almost half that did occur were from bottles that were left open – while resulting in more poisonings from other medicines, probably because consumers “were lulled into a less-safety-conscious mode of behavior by the existence of safety caps.”2 Balloon effects also can arise through illegal, evasive behavior. For example, stricter controls on legal immigration may result in more illegal immigration, and stricter gun control laws might increase illegal acquisitions of guns.
