ABSTRACT
By 2000 Algeria’s population had reached 30 million, about 2.5 times what it had been at the time of the first post-independence census in 1966. Moreover, this size had been achieved ahead of the neighbouring and sometime rival state of Morocco. However, both countries had experienced a remarkable decade of fertility decline during the 1990s that, arguably, amounted to a demographic transition, or at least to a significant step towards such a transition.1 Until as recently as the mid-1980s fertility changes in the Maghreb, along with other Islamic Middle Eastern countries, had been relatively moderate, such that Clarke could question whether demographic transition could be regarded as anything other than ‘limited’.2 Islamic religious-cultural factors were offered as explanation. Within a few years, however, Courbage and Fargues were able to demonstrate a clear demographic transition.3 Table 12.1, based on National Institute of Demographic Studies (INED) data that some would regard as ‘conservative’, shows a strong fertility decline across the four Maghreb countries. Despite a sharp drop in mortality rates as well, a significant decline in natural increase rates resulted, especially in Tunisia and Morocco. As will be demonstrated later, Algeria’s Office of National Statistics has published figures that suggest that Algeria’s fertility transition is much closer to that of its neighbouring countries than INED’s data indicate.
