ABSTRACT
Although those who live by the crystal ball may be condemned to die by eating broken glass, one sure forecast is the increase not only in the number and proportion of those aged over 65, but particularly those over the age of 80, in both developing and developed nations. This is a result of the alteration of two prime characteristics of undeveloped societies, high rates of fertility and mortality. Contrary to widespread public opinion, this change has very little to do with high-tech medicine keeping older people alive for ever longer periods. As the main determinants have been social improvements and preventive medicine, the absolute and relative numbers of older people are rising in the developing world. The increase seen in developed nations will be mirrored in developing nations: older people’s homes have appeared already in several capital cities in South East Asia (Phoon et al. 1983). The World Health Organization has forecast that there will be 600 million people over the age of 60 in the world by the year 2000: two-thirds of these will be in the developing world, as opposed to 50 per cent in 1960 (World Health Organization 1989).
