chapter  6
Pages 9

The rainfall change scenarios assume increased rainfall in winter and no change in summer rainfall, although as Table 6.1 indicates, there is considerable uncertainty. Spatial patterns of change in rainfall are even more uncertain because of the differences between different climate models, but there are indications that drier summers relative to the present are more likely to occur in the south of the UK than in the north (CCIRG, 1991). The scenarios in Table 6.1 show changes in mean rainfall and temperature. Climate models are not yet sufficiently reliable to estimate with confidence changes in the year-to-year variability in these parameters although the latest runs from GeMs can provide time series of rainfall and temperature data and these are available from the DOE LINK project.