ABSTRACT

It is appropriate in a book which adopts a broadly historical approach to conclude with a brief consideration of how the urban world may evolve in the near future. Forecasting population levels, distributions and socio-economic conditions in a single country is a difficult enough task, and attempts to undertake this sort of exercise at the global scale can only yield predictions which are little more than guesstimates. This chapter is therefore grounded in speculation rather than in detailed analysis. What is clear, however, because they are products of long-term and deep-seated processes which have yet to run their course, is that urban growth and urbanisation will lead to further significant urban development. Most will be in those parts of the world which are presently classified as developing. Even over the next quarter of a century the changes which are expected are staggering. Extrapolation of current trends suggests that the number of people who presently (1996) live in urban places is likely to double by the year 2025.