ABSTRACT

Among the core dynamics of long-term economic growth processes are K-waves of innovation and even longer cycles of politico-military preeminence and order. The shape of these processes are not perfectly uniform throughout time. Their periodicities are less than precise. They have a specific historical genealogy in the sense that their operations and transitions can be traced back roughly over the last millennium in a continuous fashion and seemingly no further, at least in a continuous fashion. Nor did they emerge abruptly with all of the characteristics that K-waves and leadership long cycles currently possess. On the contrary, almost 500 years went by before these processes began to assume the attributes associated with their contemporary manifestations. Similarly, we should not assume that these core dynamics must continue forever. They may but it is most unlikely that they will do so without undergoing substantial modification just as they already have done in the past.