ABSTRACT
When we talk here of the probability you should assign to an event, we mean the degree of belief you should have in it, which is known as your credence.
The Sleeping Beauty’s credence in Heads when first waking on Monday is the same as her credence in The coin landed Heads and
it’s Monday, because she knows that if it is now Tuesday the coin must have landed Tails. Express this credence as ‘P(HeadsMonday)’.
