ABSTRACT
In early 1990, both India and Pakistan had weak minority governments and their strategic relationship had begun to deteriorate. During 1986-7 there was a major regional military crisis (Brasstacks), but it was characterized by strong, if sometimes overambitious, leadership on both sides: Zia ul-Haq in Pakistan and Rajiv Gandhi in India. Zia died in an unexplained plane crash on August 17, 1988, along with several key generals and the U.S. ambassador, Arnold Raphel. This event sent Pakistan into uncharted political waters. Then, in late November 1989, India’s Congress Party lost a national election, and V. P. Singh replaced Rajiv Gandhi as prime minister. There was growing uncertainty and confusion in both states regarding the personalities and intentions of the “other.” This chapter surveys both the regional political and strategic developments, reserving for Chapter 3 a discussion of those elements of the 1990 crisis that emerged from events taking place in Kashmir itself.
