ABSTRACT

Toward the end of his career, Harold Lewis looked to the past to seek clues as to the possible futures of social work practice and education. He critiques the usual methods of forecasting, which are based on linear projections of current problems and trends. Forecasting the future on the basis of theory that successfully accounts for facts already known may be more demanding, but also more fruitful. The propositions proposed are intended to provide a minimal statement of a theoretical frame for forecasting developments in social work practice and education in the next decade. In this presentation, trends affecting professional education and practice, known to be true, will provide the substantive basis on which projections will rest. This process of forecasting has been described as the process of predicting a variable from itself. The influence of these trends in social work education and practice will be noted.