ABSTRACT

The contribution of geology to seismic hazard mitigation is that the past is the key to the future. Where an earthquake has occurred in the past, it is likely to occur again. The primary role of the geologist is to locate paleo-earthquakes using paleoseismology, locate and characterize the faults that generate them and develop a quantitative understanding of the style, magnitude, frequency and recency of earthquakes on those faults as a guide to their future behavior. Geology, therefore, is both locative and predictive. It can be used to forecast the size of the earthquake, the location of the fault rupture, the surface deformation anticipated where the fault does not reach the surface, and the local site amplification factors that will impact strong ground shaking and soil failures. Geology provides the quantitative foundation on which other aspects of seismic hazard mitigation are based.