ABSTRACT
Much of what happens in politics is luck-whether your candidacy is affected by uncontrollable events (e.g. the Iranian hostage crisis) or whether your opponent turns out to be a weak candidate (e.g. Goldwater). Recent presidents who have not secured a second term did not lose simply because of a failed presidency, but have been the unfortunate victims of circumstance: Ford confronted an abbreviated term, the Nixon pardon and was forced to govern in the aftermath of Watergate when voter cynicism was at a new-found height. Carter faced stagflation and the Iranian hostage crisis. Bush confronted a formidable third party challenge and an economy perceived to be in decline. Think positively and hope for the best. President Clinton perhaps best embodies the “be lucky” strategy. Despite a deluge of scandals, staff mishaps, legislative defeats and personal attacks which occurred throughout his first term, the “Comeback Kid” miraculously managed to rise above these sideshows and go on to victory.
