ABSTRACT
Whether party stakeholders can unify before the caucuses and primaries depends in no small part on the candidates who enter the race. Candidates are active agents in the coalition-building process. Ambitious politicians who want to be president look for circumstances in which their chances for success are good, but they also try to improve their chances through innovative strategies, persuasion, and even changing their party coalitions. Nominations tend to be more candidate-centric during time periods when party coalitions are fragmenting and unstable and there is less polarization between the parties, as was the case in the late 1960s and 1970s when the major parties were in the midst of a realignment. Nominations in these circumstances also involve more uncertainty about which candidate will be nominated, which leads more strong candidates to enter the race since more of them are inclined to think that they can win. As a result, nominations during periods of party coalition instability will be more competitive with less coalescence among party constituencies during the invisible primary. Presidential candidates also have greater potential to influence the formation of a new party coalition.
