ABSTRACT
Most social science methods are designed to build knowledge about the world as it is now, or as it was before. In contrast, scenarios are a unique set of techniques intended to think about how the world might be in the future, and are often commissioned with the stated goal of aiding decisionmakers (in the public, private, and civil society sectors) in envisioning, understanding, and planning for the future. Commonly defined as “plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold” (Raskin 2005: 36), scenarios generally combine quantitative biophysical models and qualitative storylines of social and political trends. The quantitative modeling elements ensure internal consistency and impose structural limitations, e.g. maximum possible rates of technology replacement, while the narrative storylines accommodate the possibility of rapid social transformation, e.g. a significant change in ecosystem function.
