ABSTRACT
Recent trade initiatives in the Arab world and more generally the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region have had different objectives: integration with Europe (the EuroMed agreements), regional integration (the Greater Arab Free Trade Association or alternatively sub-regional integration), and even combinations of these two kinds of initiatives, such as the linking of Israel, Jordan, and Palestine with the United States. A common motivation for these initiatives is the perception that existing trade flows at the regional or global level are below what would normally be expected. The different initiatives, however, also reflect uncertainty as to which trade flows are most underdeveloped relative to what would take place in a less distorted world. Where existing flows are especially low in relation to their expected or ‘natural’ levels, trade promotion measures might be expected to be effective. On the other hand, if these flows are not comparatively low, this would imply that there is little potential for growth in trade and that trade promotion arrangements could prove ineffective.
