Interpreting the tariff–growth correlation of the late nineteenth century DOUGLAS A . IRWIN

Immediately following World War II, many economists believed that a trade policy based on import substitution would best promote economic development. Subsequent experience instead revealed the costs of protectionism (Krueger, 1997). In the nineteenth century as well, many political economists (such as Friedrich List) advocated import tariffs to promote the growth of domestic manufacturing in countries that were behind the industrial leader, then the United Kingdom. Unlike the recent period, however, the late-nineteenth-century experience is often interpreted as confirming the wisdom of import substitution.2