ABSTRACT
It is believed that the new decade is likely to see a maturation of human factors techniques in many areas of safety and reliability engineering. The ‘demographic time-bomb’ and society’s continued expectations for still greater safety and reliability are thought likely to stimulate demand for rapid corporate training in the appropriate human factors technologies, the development of rapid, cost-effective, assessment techniques and the distillation of a currently complex data-base into one from which easily assimilated messages can be extracted. Five themes seem probable in the field of human reliability assessment; cross-validation of error mechanism predictions, progress in human dependency modelling, collation of human reliability databases, the development of ‘super methods’, and more open exchange of information concerning human failure. It is thought likely that the greatest improvements in human factors technology will develop from a more astute use of industrial resources rather than major innovation in this area.
