ABSTRACT

This chapter discusses a number of series that provide focus on aggregate economic activity. Industrial production is the oldest measure of aggregate US activity, with monthly data on its manufacturing component going back to 1925. Attention on industrial production may have waned over the years, apparently in part due to the observation that manufacturing has become a smaller portion of the economy. Downplaying industrial production for this reason is arguably misdirected, confusing numbers relevant to the level of economic activity with those relevant to the business cycle. When one looks at the portion of the economy that is most sensitive to cyclical influences, the value of industrial production as an indicator of aggregate activity becomes evident. While industrial production doesn't move in a complete lockstep with goods and structures gross domestic product, the two series are closely related measures of the major part of activity tied to the business cycle.