ABSTRACT

Some widely followed data series do not have obvious links to goal variables but are believed to be able to track or anticipate important changes in the broad economy. These include business surveys and the explicit cyclical indicators reports. The most closely followed business survey is likely the monthly report on manufacturing issued by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), formerly known as the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). The ISM also surveys non-manufacturing firm. Many other Federal Reserve banks conduct monthly surveys of manufacturers in their districts and release the results. The questions and summary of the results in each case differs from the Philadelphia–New York model. These surveys do not appear to receive as much attention and systematic analysis as does the national PMI and the ones of the Philadelphia and New York banks. Federal Reserve banks have also begun to report on non-manufacturing activity.