ABSTRACT
A great deal of consumer spending is on imported products, while gross domestic product (GDP) is a measure of domestic production. This chapter examines data that can be used by an analyst to keep track of, and to forecast, the consumption component of GDP. There are copious indicative data series related to consumer spending that allow an analyst to track short-term trends in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) measures in considerable depth. BEA releases estimates of monthly real and current-dollar consumer spending as part of the personal income release, typically issued the day after the GDP release. Analysts may look at the consumer credit report issued monthly by the Federal Reserve as a guide to either current or future developments in consumer spending. However, a report that consumer borrowing has been strong in a month has a complex connection to spending. The consumer credit report might more properly be seen as an indicator of conditions in the lending industry.
