ABSTRACT
This chapter develops a general model for predicting European Union (EU) referendums and tests it on all the 46 previous referendums held on EU membership or treaty changes 1972–2016. Referendums on European integration and EU/European Economic Community (EEC) membership have received a fair bit of coverage. Although there has been comparative writings as to what determines the outcome of these referendums, psephologists have not yet devised a predictive model for forecasting EU referendums of the type developed by academics studying parliamentary and presidential elections. It is commonly assumed that voters reject referendums on the EU. In reality, the EU has been relatively popular among voters. Hitherto, research on the outcome of EU referendums have often been characterized by single case research. Somewhat counter-intuitively, there is no correlation between the perceived benefits of EU membership and a yes-vote in a referendum.
