chapter  8
Arms Races, the Conflict Spiral, and the Onset of War
Pages 24

Although these words were written over 15 years ago, they still have a ring of truth today. Scholars continue to devote most of their attention to modeling arms races, with special emphasis on the effects of factors such as reactivity and technology. One need only look at the recent reviews of arms race models (Moll and Luebbert 1980; Isard and Anderton 1985; Anderton 1985) to appreciate both the volume and sophistication of this work. Yet even though many of these models enlighten us on the dynamics of arms races, they tell us little or nothing about their relationship to and effect upon the broader political context in which these competitions take place. When will arms races lead to militarized confrontations? When will they lead to war? Under what conditions can they be terminated in a peaceful manner? Can arms races actually reduce the chances of war? These are only a few of the questions to which Singer alluded.