ABSTRACT
The study of historical freight rate fl uctuations over the previous two centuries has attracted the attention of several economists both maritime and non-shipping specialists. The nature of these studies varies and could be sub-divided in descending order of profusion into:
(a) long term shipping productivity gains and associated secular fall in across the board ocean freight rates;
(b) single route specifi c studies; (c) the nature and periodicity of cyclical fl uctuations; (d) construction of freight rate indices; (e) the contribution of falling freight rates to the reduction in barriers to trade; (f ) returns on capital to shipping investors; and (g) port productivity trend developments
The literature is growing at exponential rate yet in certain respects the accumulation of knowledge at times resembles more a “Copernican” lens approach. It sorely lacks a “Newtonian” methodical tidying up system. The appendix contains a non-exhaustive list of such studies. However, in spirit the closest pro-genitor of the present one, is Lewis (1941), which to our knowledge has never been referenced in the subsequent shipping literature.
